You're on a roll with the clever articles, JJ! Your explanation is the best I've seen yet. I found it was easier to grasp when framed as first, what's the likelihood of picking a goat (p), then flipping it (1-p). Somehow, knowing there were 2 goats to start with makes it easier to grasp than trying to find the 1 car. Kind of like the people who solved for beer correctly, who couldn't solve for the color red.